Crisis in Ukraine: The West Needs to Act, China is Watching

Russia’s war in Ukraine isn’t just a regional conflict—it’s a global crisis that threatens U.S. security and the balance of power in Europe. In this episode of Common Sense for America, we break down Putin’s imperial ambitions, the failure of past Western deterrence, and why stopping Russia now is critical to preventing a larger war. From energy warfare to NATO’s role, we lay out the real stakes and what must be done to end Russia’s aggression. Like with Munich 1938, the east is watching. 

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 **Facts and Citations**: 
   - Russia’s GDP (World Bank): $1.5 trillion (2022)  
   - U.S. military aid to Ukraine: $43 billion (2023)  
   - EU's natural gas dependence on Russia: 40% (2021, Eurostat) 
   - Russia’s nuclear arsenal: 6,375 warheads (Arms Control Association)

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ABOUT COMMON SENSE FOR AMERICA:
Common Sense For America brings history and facts together to inspire non-partisan, common sense solutions to America's biggest challenges. Inspired by Common Sense a pamphlet written by Thomas Paine, 1776, Bruce Rutherford, political commentator and educator, dissects U.S. history, American finance, and global affairs, and shares insights in everyday language.

Thomas Paine's Common Sense argues that concentrated political power, whether in a monarchy or elite class, is unjust and undermines democracy. Like with Common Sense, we advocate for a government accountable to the people, emphasizing transparency, representation, and checks on power.

Transcript

 Ukraine is just the third domino in his plan to to reshape Europe. So, you say: Why should we care? What happens in Ukraine doesn't stay in Ukraine. If Russia succeeds, it won't stop there. Welcome yo Common Sense For America. Today we are talking about one of the most dangerous political conflicts in recent history: The Crisis in Ukraine. What's happening there isn't just a foreign issue. It's about global security, and it directly affects you and your family. As we speak, Russia is waging a brutal war of aggression, and the West has been drawn into a new Cold War that has the potential to become something much worse. Let's start with the basics. Ukraine, a country that has suffered under centuries of foreign rule, especially during the Soviet Union, fought to maintain its independence. In 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine emerged as an independent nation. But that independence has always been threatened by Russia and others. Ukraine asked the West for security guarantees, in the event that its borders were attacked, in return for surrendering the nuclear weapons in its possession as a result of its association with the Soviet Union. The US and NATO gave weak assurances in 1994 in a vague and weak document, but they did not offer NATO membership. Between 1994 and 1998, NATO admitted 13 new countries between Germany and Russia. This made Russia feel very insecure, encircled, and threatened. In 2008, Russia invaded and annexed the nation of Georgia. The Bush administration and NATO did nothing in response. In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea. And at this time, the Obama administration and NATO again did nothing in response. Now, if you were Putin, what would you think? You would probably think, "The West did not learn the lessons of 1938, and you could get away with taking more territory." Your dreams, you Putin, your dreams of a new Russian Empire probably looked achievable to you in 2022. So Putin then invaded the Donbas, and he wants to take the entire country of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin's ambitions go well beyond the Ukraine. His vision is to build Russia's imperial power, to restore the traditional Russian Empire. Ukraine is just the third domino in his plan to reshape Europe. So you say, "Well, why should we care in the United States?" Well, it's pretty simple. What happens in the Ukraine doesn't stay in the Ukraine. If Russia succeeds, it won't stop there. Putin will exercise his control over Belarus, Georgia, Moldovia, and now the Ukraine. And control of these countries means he has control over the Black Sea and crucial parts of Europe. And he's threatening our NATO ally, Turkey, which is to the south of those four countries. If Putin is emboldened by success in the Ukraine, the conflict could spill over into other NATO countries, dragging the US and Europe into a much, much larger war. Understand that Russia's military is dangerous, but its economy is weak. Despite its nuclear arsenal and aggressive posturing, Russia's economy is smaller than that of Texas. Now, this is important to know. According to the World Bank, Russia's GDP in 2022 was just $1.5 trillion. Now, that compares to Texas, the state of Texas' GDP, of around $2 trillion. Even with sanctions squeezing Russia's economy, Putin has kept up his military operations because of one reason, nuclear weapons. These weapons are his trump card, and it allows him to punch above his weight on the global stage. But why hasn't Russia collapsed yet? Because we've just stated their economy is not that great. The answer lies in its natural resources. Russia is one of the world's largest producers of oil and natural gas. The revenue from energy exports, despite our sanctions, continues to prop up the Russian economy. According to the International Energy Agency, the IEA, in 2022, Russia exported more than 4.8 million barrels a day. They produce north of 7 million barrels a day, and you can see they export the vast majority of that. While sanctions have hurt, they haven't fully cut off Russia's economic life. Now, what does this mean for the United States and the West? If we don't stand up to Russia now, we risk a much greater conflict down the road. But what should we, the West, do? There are a few critical actions that, in my view, must be taken. First, we must give Ukraine the tools to defend itself. The US and NATO have provided billions in military aid to Ukraine, and it's working. Ukraine's military has been resilient, pushing back Russian advances, and even making inroads into Russian territories. But it's not enough. The West needs to step up its support: More advanced weapons, more intelligence, more intelligence sharing, and faster delivery of critical supplies, more air support. Now, according to reports, the US has already provided over 43 billion in military assistance as of 2023. If we are serious about stopping Russia, that number needs to increase. We need to be prepared for a long-term conflict. This is not going to end quickly. Even if Ukraine wins back its territory, rebuilding the country will take years. And Russia's ambitions will not disappear overnight. The West needs to stay committed, both militarily and economically, for the long haul. We need to help Ukraine invade and take Russian territory and dismantle any nuclear installations that fall into Ukraine's hands. With that, an end to the conflict could be negotiated along the following line: First, each side would agree to withdraw from the other's territory, including the Crimea. Ukraine gets back all its territory. Russia returns the estimated 70,000 children and has kidnapped from Ukraine. Yes, I said estimated 70,000 children. Russia pays a negotiated amount of reparations to Ukraine to help them rebuild. And Ukraine and the West agree not to prosecute Putin for war crimes. Otherwise, he'll continue the war. He'd have no incentive not to. Prosecution of his generals, however, becomes a negotiable point. We might very well prosecute them for war crimes. Second, NATO must make it clear that Ukraine's future lies in the West. For too long, the West has been hesitant to offer Ukraine full membership than NATO or the European Union. That hesitation has emboldened Russia. If Ukraine were a full NATO member, Russia would never have dared to invade. Now NATO must fast-track Ukraine's membership and guarantee its security. As Article 5 of the NATO Treaty states, an attack on one is an attack on all. Ukraine needs to know that it has the full backing of the West. This includes admitting the Ukraine to the European Union as well as NATO. Third, we need to address Russia's ability to export oil and gas. Russia's control over energy supplies to Europe has been one of its most effective geopolitical weapons. European countries, particularly Germany, have been very reliant on Russian natural gas. In 2021, nearly 40% of the European Union's natural gas came from Russia. This dependency must end. Europe and the US need to work together to diversify Europe's energy supplies: investing in renewables, investing in nuclear energy, and increasing LNG exports from the US to Europe. If we can cut off Russia's energy revenues, significantly reducing them at least, we will significantly weaken their ability to fund their war machine, and they will become much easier to deal with. But it's not just about Russia and the Ukraine. It's about the global order. China is watching what happens in Ukraine very closely. If Russia gets away with this invasion, China may be even more emboldened to take action against Taiwan. We're seeing the beginning of a new world order, where authoritarian regimes test the resolve of democracies like the United States, like the European countries. And if the US and its allies do not respond decisively in Ukraine, we will face an even bigger threat from China and the Pacific. So what more can we do? First, we need a long-term solution that ends the Russian nuclear threat. Russia holds the world's largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, and while the likelihood of a nuclear exchange is low, it's not zero. According to arms control experts, Russia has about 6,375 nuclear warheads. Any escalation that involves nuclear weapons would have catastrophic consequences, not just for Ukraine or Europe, but the entire world. The longer Russia holds nuclear weapons, the more dangerous the situation becomes. For any long-term peace, the plan must include Russian nuclear disarmament, either through international pressure, or as a precondition for re-entering the global community of nations. Part of the solution to Russian nuclear disarmament is Russia's seat on the UN Security Council. That seat is a relic of the Soviet Union, which no longer exists. Russia, technically, was never legally entitled to that seat, because Russia is a different country. Now, as a nation that has just invaded its neighbors, committed war crimes, and bombed civilian facilities, it's time for the world to reevaluate Russia and its seat on the Security Council. The US and its allies should call for a UN resolution stripping Russia of its seat on the Security Council. Certainly, the Chinese will probably try to veto that, but we need to get that started anyway. Russian nuclear disarmament should be the only path to recovering its seat on the Security Council and the removal of sanctions, economic sanctions, on Russia. What can you do? This isn't just about governments and politicians. It's about people. Stay informed. Talk about these issues with your friends and your family and your colleagues. Let your voice be heard! The future of global stability is at stake on this issue, and it's going to take all of us to ensure that we make the right choices. The crisis in Ukraine is a defining moment for our generation, my generation, and I think probably for our children as well. If we fail to act, we will face even greater conflicts in the future. The lessons of 1938 are very clear here, but if we stand firm, if we support Ukraine, and we stop Russian aggression, we can secure a dramatically safer world for future generations. Thank you for joining me today in our Common Sense for America episode. Talk about this with your family, with your friends, with your colleagues, and let us know what you think. We'd love to hear from you. Join us next time. Until then, God bless you and God bless the United States.